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, : (Carbon, climate, and land-use in Ukraine: Forest sector) Book May 2014 READS 5 authors, including: Anatoly Shvidenko ...

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Summary The Chapter considers the current and future impacts of Ukrainian forests on the global carbon budget. The carbon budget for 19962011 was estimated based on relevant combination of pool-based and flux-based approaches using a simplified version of the methodology of terrestrial ecosystems full carbon account (FCA) developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA). The application of the pool-based methods showed that during the period of 19962011, Ukrainian forest served as a net carbon sink at 12.02.1 Tg Cyr1. Of this

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total sink, 74% are stored in live biomass, 3% in coarse woody debris and 23% in soil. Within the flux-based method the major components of the FCA were: Net Primary Production 49.05.9 Tg Cyr1, Heterotrophic Respiration 31.65.5 Tg Cyr1, the flux to hydrosphere and lithosphere 0.70.4 Tg Cyr1, and the flux due to natural and human induced disturbances 6.41.6 Tg Cyr1, i.e. average annual value of Net Biome Production for 19962010 is estimated at 10.32.7 Tg Cyr1. Both these estimates are at about one-third lower than previously reported data including official reports to the UN FCCC.

Analysis of climate forecasts for Ukraine using climatic model HadCM3 and IPCC scenarios A2A showed that the climate by end of this century (20802100) comparatively to averages of the previous climate for 19502000 will likely be much warmer (+7C in annual temperature and above +1000 C degree-days for days with temperasture 10 C during the growth period) but drier (monthly amount of precipitation might decrese at 18%). The impacts of climate change on forests is different in a short- (19151930) and long-period (end of this century) forecasts.

Acceleration of the current climate may provide both positive and negative impacts on Ukrainian forests during the next decades, although the increase of such disturbances like fire and insect outbrakes is very likely.

Some publications and models predict increase of productivity of forests due to increasing concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere and nitrogen deposition but quantitave estimates are very uncertaine. A conservative estimate has been used in the predictions considered in this Chapter.

While the moderate impacts of climate change on Ukrainian forests are expected during the next two decades, much more dangerous risks due to climatic and environmental change are very likely by end of the century.

Forests of the southern part of the country (a xeric belt, the zone of climatic ecotone between forest and steppe) are most vulnerable where productivity and vitality of forests will be impacted by more frequent and intensive heat ways, longer dry periods and increasing frequency and severity of natural disturbances.

The Chapter contains a forecast of dynamics of Ukrainian forests for the period of years 20152030 in two scenarios inertial (business-asusual) and advanced scenarios. The first one prolongs the policies and tendencies of the last two decades. The second includes implementation of most urgent actions aiming at improvement of structure of agro-forestry

4. ̲ ί ˲ ˲Ѳ landscapes. The business-as-usual scenario foresees the increase of the area and growing stock of Ukrainian forests at 2,2% and 7,2% respectively; no any substantial improvements of state and quality of agroforestry landscapes and agricultural land are predicted. The advanced scenario is based on current economic realities and includes most pressing actions required for partial reduction of negative processes in agro-forestry landscapes and in forests themselves. This scenario foresees the increase of area of forests (including shelterbelts) and growing stock by end of the period at 9.4% and 14.5%, respectively. These actions would provide about half of the actual need of the countrys aforestation (Chapter 6).

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SWorld 19-30 March 2013 http://www.sworld.com.ua/index.php/ru/conference/the-content-of-conferences/archives-of-individual-conferences/march-2013 MODERN DIRECTIONS OF THEORETICAL AND APPLIED RESEARCHES 2013 / 641.528:635.82 .., .. ˲ Ҳ ϲҲ ί - , ʳ 19, 02156 UDC...

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